With Super Tuesday about to take place, the real candidates for President of The United States are beginning to become clearer. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is leading the race decidedly. On the Republican side, Donald Trump leads the way. There has been much more jockeying for position on the Republican side than has been seen with the Democrats, but there is sure to be much more action ahead before the nominations are finalized.
Going into Super Tuesday, at the time of this post, the percentage odds are as follows at Election Betting Odds…
To Win Democratic Primary
To Win Republican Primary
To Win Presidency
At one point in time, Donald Trump could be bet at around 100/1 to win the Republican Primary. Now, however, he is a favorite, paying significantly less than 1/1. Only a dramatic result for Rubio and/or Cruz would be able to swing these odds. Most polls show Trump with a dominating lead in every Super Tuesday state except for Texas, where Senator Cruz leads and is also from. There has been no shortage of political action in the week leading up to Super Tuesday, with everything from the Republican Debate on Thursday to sensational media stories about Trump and Rubio alike, but these odds have remained fairly static since the Nevada Caucuses.
Needless to say, Trump currently holds a lock on the betting odds and every major poll, both for Super Tuesday and the nomination alike. If you are wanting to bet on Trump, you would be wise to place a bet right away, as dominating wins on Tuesday will only push his odds even lower.
Surprisingly, the Democratic Primary race is even less of a battle than can be found on the Republican side. Though the media and news outlets have been portraying something of a battle between Clinton and Sanders, the truth is that Clinton has been a sizeable favorite from day one, and her grasp on the lead has only gotten stronger. Clinton is not only a massive odds on favorite to win the Democratic Nomination, but she also remains the favorite to become the next President of the United States.
When betting odds first began to formulate in the summer of 2015, you may be surprised to find out who one of the favorites was. While Clinton has always been the Democratic front runner, her main competition was once found in Jeb Bush. If you had wagered on Bush (likely at odds around 2/1), you can throw that ticket away since he is no longer running for the nomination. If you had bet Clinton, however, you likely have around the same odds as you always did.
The big long shot that is primed to payoff can most certainly be found in Donald Trump to win the Republican Nomination. It was not long ago that he could be bet at 100/1, with many betting sites not even offering odds. Once he announced his candidacy, he did receive a boost, and the betting trends have been fairly linear ever since. From 100/1, Trump slowly but surely moved to 75/1, to 60/1, to 50/1, to where he stands today at roughly ⅕. Quite the impressive shift in betting odds. It is likely too late to cash in on this side, but if you still have faith in another Republican candidate, now is a better time than ever to place your wager.
Unfortunately, outside of friendly wagers with friends, betting options for US Citizens are quite limited when it comes to the political arena. Yes, you could join some online sports betting sites, but you can’t place bets in brick and mortar casinos. If you have a friend who lives outside of the US, however, you may be able to advise them on a wager of their own as most non-US territories allow bets on politics to be placed.
The most interesting dynamic and element of political betting odds can be found in the trends. There are a limitless number of polls that can be found, day in and day out, but nothing beats the power of traditional betting odds. Whether it is gambling on professional sports or wagering on politics, betting odds always seem to be the best indicator of the most likely results. We will check back in a few weeks and see how these odds have changed and just how predictive they were.